Tracking The Recovery: What Real-Time Data Says About The State Of The Global Economy


Where we remain in a nutshell: in the previous 8 weeks there has been a 38 million increase in United States unemployment combined with a $10 trillion forecast loss in global GDP through 2021; this nevertheless has been offset by $4 trillion of asset purchases by reserve banks leading to a $15 trillion rise in worldwide equity market cap.

And now that with every passing day more of the worldwide economy is reopening as the coronavirus crisis disappears (a minimum of up until a 2nd wave emerges), what investors and regular individuals care about is not where we are but where we are going. To respond to that concern, here is an in-depth overview of the effect of Covid-19 on the worldwide economy through numerous real-time, high frequency information put together by JPM as it appears right now, weeks if not months prior to it makes it into authorities “adjusted” economic reports.

First, a picture of COVID-19 infection count and local spread:

The current information on-ground movement information suggests that there is a long method before normal.

While air traffic is depressing, here too there a minor rebound in primarily non-commercial flights; business air traffic remains a disaster.

While credit card costs has actually seen a modest rebound, and consumer activity is plainly starting to recover, restaurant reservations in the United States remains miserable.

Some more snapshots of consumer activity looking at retail traffic, footfalls and deliveries.

While hotel, box office and transport use remains miserable, supermarkets are going strong. For those who think Facebook that advertisement costs has actually normalized, they are in for a shock.

The labor market, sadly, remains an unmitigated catastrophe:

Both industrial and manufacturing activity in the US has been paralyzed, however it is beginning to rebound.

So how about China, after all it’s allegedly all “repaired” now. Unfortunately, the real-time information paints a vastly different picture.

While coal intake has actually recuperated, power use in the epicenter of Hubei province, remains roughly half of regular.

In Europe, it’s – as usual – a tale of two halves: the northern countries where things are largely typical, and the Mediterranean states where the discomfort is largely concentrated.

Finally, some mobility charts, initially in the UK …

… and after that Europe.

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